Carrick Ryan:
Trump has all but dissolved the NATO alliance and eroded the supremacy of liberal democracy across the world, essentially crippling Putin's greatest adversaries.
Yet... Moscow looks far too impotent to seize the moment.
The success of the US special military operation in Caracas drew into sharp focus the revelation of Russia's military ineptitude in Ukraine. For all its bluster of being the world's "second" most powerful army, it couldn't overcome an impoverished and under-prepared smaller nation, and has spent three years sending a generation of young men on futile "meat assaults" to advance the front line by metres at a time.
It's flagship naval vessel got sunk in the Black Sea, it was forced to retreat from Kherson, and appears to be incapable of defending its industrial infrastructure, or even air force bases, from Ukrainian drones.
Russia is so weak, it needed to ask for military support from North Korea to sustain its war, a hermit kingdom that hasn't fought a war for half a century and has less advanced weaponry than most European armies.
As a result of its war, it's an international pariah, banned from most sport, it is now the most heavily sanctioned country on the planet, with at least $350 billion of its international assets frozen, while NATO has expanded, adding the previously neutral Sweden and Finland, bringing the Western alliance within 35 km of St Petersburg
It was unable to protect Armenian Christians from ethnic cleansing in Azerbaijan, despite Armenia being a member of a collective security treaty with Russia. Pushing a once loyal ally towards the West
It was unable to save it's murderous tyrant in Syria after a decade of perpetrating war crimes on his people, losing a long time regional proxy, and crucial Mediterranean naval base.
Despite intense influence operations, pro-EU candidates defeated pro-Kremlin candidates in Romania, Moldova, and Bulgaria.
It is unable to prevent the realignment of Central Asian states towards China, with Kazakhstan refusing to recognise its annexations in Ukraine, and the entire region forming a crucial cog in Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives.
Now its key strategic ally in the Americas has been effectively stolen by the US, and forced to accept its terms of subjugation... with Putin, once again, unable to deter aggression towards its ally.
To add insult to injury, the US just seized one of its ships in the North Atlantic, despite the Kremlin's protests...
Putin is weak and Russia is declining under the weight of a culture of jingoistic nationalism obsessed with the potential geopolitical shuffling of chairs at the table of hegemony. It's economy is entirely dependent on indefinite war, it is among the most unequal societies on the planet, and its life expectancy is more than a decade lower than Western Europe’s.
Unfortunately, however, even as he loses he is ensuring there are no winners. Through decades of information warfare, he is polluting the whole world with his twisted vision of humanity that has turned Russia into what it is. A society deluded by its grandeur and deceived into intoxicating grievance.
I am 41 years old, but the world I grew up in felt very different to what I see today. It was by no means perfect, but it at least seemed to aspire to the establishment of a global community, of equality among nations, of a world with agreed rules.
We wanted a future where the UN mattered, where international law was sacred, and democracy was ubiquitous... we didn't always go in the right direction, but we seemed to all agree what direction we needed to go in.
What happened to that broad consensus? When did our national identity begin to matter more than our conscience? Why are we abandoning the international organisations we built to help us overcome humanity's collective hurdles?
When did globalisation become a dirty word?
When did alliances become irrelevant?
When did fascism become forgivable?
When did our empathy become a point of mockery?
When did hatred become a point of pride?
I suspect, probably around the time we stopped talking to each other...
When we became too enraged to listen to each other. When we became so polarised that the idea of living with each other suddenly seemed impossible. We're now terrified of the people we've lived alongside for generations... and depressingly... sometimes that fear is justified.
This is what Putin wanted us to become...
I'm not saying he is solely responsible. But I'm certain he's at the very least made it worse. His life's work is to divide us to the point where our democracies fail, causing our alliances to break... he has made the world a poorer, more dangerous, and more hostile place than it should have been.
Carrick Ryan:
Trump has all but dissolved the NATO alliance and eroded the supremacy of liberal democracy across the world, essentially crippling Putin's greatest adversaries.
Yet... Moscow looks far too impotent to seize the moment.
The success of the US special military operation in Caracas drew into sharp focus the revelation of Russia's military ineptitude in Ukraine. For all its bluster of being the world's "second" most powerful army, it couldn't overcome an impoverished and under-prepared smaller nation, and has spent three years sending a generation of young men on futile "meat assaults" to advance the front line by metres at a time.
It's flagship naval vessel got sunk in the Black Sea, it was forced to retreat from Kherson, and appears to be incapable of defending its industrial infrastructure, or even air force bases, from Ukrainian drones.
Russia is so weak, it needed to ask for military support from North Korea to sustain its war, a hermit kingdom that hasn't fought a war for half a century and has less advanced weaponry than most European armies.
As a result of its war, it's an international pariah, banned from most sport, it is now the most heavily sanctioned country on the planet, with at least $350 billion of its international assets frozen, while NATO has expanded, adding the previously neutral Sweden and Finland, bringing the Western alliance within 35 km of St Petersburg
It was unable to protect Armenian Christians from ethnic cleansing in Azerbaijan, despite Armenia being a member of a collective security treaty with Russia. Pushing a once loyal ally towards the West
It was unable to save it's murderous tyrant in Syria after a decade of perpetrating war crimes on his people, losing a long time regional proxy, and crucial Mediterranean naval base.
Despite intense influence operations, pro-EU candidates defeated pro-Kremlin candidates in Romania, Moldova, and Bulgaria.
It is unable to prevent the realignment of Central Asian states towards China, with Kazakhstan refusing to recognise its annexations in Ukraine, and the entire region forming a crucial cog in Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives.
Now its key strategic ally in the Americas has been effectively stolen by the US, and forced to accept its terms of subjugation... with Putin, once again, unable to deter aggression towards its ally.
To add insult to injury, the US just seized one of its ships in the North Atlantic, despite the Kremlin's protests...
Putin is weak and Russia is declining under the weight of a culture of jingoistic nationalism obsessed with the potential geopolitical shuffling of chairs at the table of hegemony. It's economy is entirely dependent on indefinite war, it is among the most unequal societies on the planet, and its life expectancy is more than a decade lower than Western Europe’s.
Unfortunately, however, even as he loses he is ensuring there are no winners. Through decades of information warfare, he is polluting the whole world with his twisted vision of humanity that has turned Russia into what it is. A society deluded by its grandeur and deceived into intoxicating grievance.
I am 41 years old, but the world I grew up in felt very different to what I see today. It was by no means perfect, but it at least seemed to aspire to the establishment of a global community, of equality among nations, of a world with agreed rules.
We wanted a future where the UN mattered, where international law was sacred, and democracy was ubiquitous... we didn't always go in the right direction, but we seemed to all agree what direction we needed to go in.
What happened to that broad consensus? When did our national identity begin to matter more than our conscience? Why are we abandoning the international organisations we built to help us overcome humanity's collective hurdles?
When did globalisation become a dirty word?
When did alliances become irrelevant?
When did fascism become forgivable?
When did our empathy become a point of mockery?
When did hatred become a point of pride?
I suspect, probably around the time we stopped talking to each other...
When we became too enraged to listen to each other. When we became so polarised that the idea of living with each other suddenly seemed impossible. We're now terrified of the people we've lived alongside for generations... and depressingly... sometimes that fear is justified.
This is what Putin wanted us to become...
I'm not saying he is solely responsible. But I'm certain he's at the very least made it worse. His life's work is to divide us to the point where our democracies fail, causing our alliances to break... he has made the world a poorer, more dangerous, and more hostile place than it should have been.
English